Dynamic Bayesian networks are structured representations of stochastic pro- cesses. Despite their structure, exact inference in DBNs is generally intractable. One approach to approximate inference involves grouping the variables in the process into smaller factors and keeping independent beliefs over these factors. In this paper we present several techniques for decomposing a dynamic Bayesian network automatically to enable factored inference. We examine a number of fea- tures of a DBN that capture different types of dependencies that will cause error in factored inference.

Stochastic processes have many applications, including in finance and physics. It is an interesting model to represent many phenomena. Unfortunately the theory behind it is very difficult, making it accessible to a few'elite' data scientists, and not popular in business contexts. One of the most simple examples is a random walk, and indeed easy to understand with no mathematical background. However, time-continuous stochastic processes are always defined and studied using advanced and abstract mathematical tools such as measure theory, martingales, and filtration.

In my first article on this topic (see here) I introduced some of the complex stochastic processes used by Wall Street data scientists, using a simple approach that can be understood by people with no statistics background other than a first course such as stats 101. I defined and illustrated the continuous Brownian motion (the mother of all these stochastic processes) using approximations by discrete random walks, simply re-scaling the X-axis and the Y-axis appropriately, and making time increments (the X-axis) smaller and smaller, so that the limiting process is a time-continuous one. This was done without using any complicated mathematics such as measure theory or filtrations. Here I am going one step further, introducing the integral and derivative of such processes, using rudimentary mathematics. All the articles that I've found on this subject are full of complicated equations and formulas.

Stochastic processes have many applications, including in finance and physics. It is an interesting model to represent many phenomena. Unfortunately the theory behind it is very difficult, making it accessible to a few'elite' data scientists, and not popular in business contexts. One of the most simple examples is a random walk, and indeed easy to understand with no mathematical background. However, time-continuous stochastic processes are always defined and studied using advanced and abstract mathematical tools such as measure theory, martingales, and filtration.

Stochastic processes have many applications, including in finance and physics. It is an interesting model to represent many phenomena. Unfortunately the theory behind it is very difficult, making it accessible to a few'elite' data scientists, and not popular in business contexts. One of the most simple examples is a random walk, and indeed easy to understand with no mathematical background. However, time-continuous stochastic processes are always defined and studied using advanced and abstract mathematical tools such as measure theory, martingales, and filtration.

Stochastic processes have many applications, including in finance and physics. It is an interesting model to represent many phenomena. Unfortunately the theory behind it is very difficult, making it accessible to a few'elite' data scientists, and not popular in business contexts. One of the most simple examples is a random walk, and indeed easy to understand with no mathematical background. However, time-continuous stochastic processes are always defined and studied using advanced and abstract mathematical tools such as measure theory, martingales, and filtration.